By Robert Hahn, Paul Tetlock
Details markets have confirmed to be so remarkably exact at predicting quite a lot of occasions, from presidential elections to Oscar winners, that students are challenged to envision the opportunity of utilizing this leading edge instrument in different parts. This ebook brings jointly 9 best students to judge the applicability of data markets to the paintings of policymakers, non-profit firms, and the personal area.
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Additional info for Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions
38. The other debates are unfortunately of less use. For the first debate there were no instant polls to determine a winner objectively; it took at least one news 36 NOTES TO PAGES 28–32 cycle for a consensus to emerge that Kerry had won, and this leaves us with too long an event window. The second debate was on a Friday evening, when futures markets were closed, and the vice-presidential debate was considered to be approximately a draw. 39. The slow incorporation of information in prediction markets is illustrated by figure 2-4.
More modern approaches include computer search engines. All have their advocates, and all have drawbacks. A newer approach uses the power of carefully focused markets. These have come to be known as information or prediction markets. What is an information market? One of the earliest examples of a market created specifically to aggregate information was the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM). The familiar question the market was designed to answer was, who will win an election? In 1988, some faculty at the University of Iowa Business School securitized the presidential-election prediction and provided a trading system on the Internet.
5 There is also a growing body of scientific evidence to support the contention that information markets can provide significant aggregation. I turn to that evidence now. The Field Evidence. There are many naturally occurring information markets. Stock markets, futures markets, and parimutuel betting are just 40 INFORMATION MARKETS some examples. In direct comparisons with other institutions, they seem to perform very well. 8 One can also create information markets. In direct comparisons to other institutions, these designer markets, created explicitly to aggregate information, also seem to perform very well.