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Q2 = 1 if the second quarter; q3 = 1 if the third quarter; q4 = 1 if the fourth quarter; otherwise 0. Source: Authors. 2) and ΔGt, are scaled by GDP. 30 We used the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) method to measure the trend of real output. 31 Since we do not have consistent quarterly data on forward rates we assumed that economic agents had either perfect foresight or static expectations to proxy the expected exchange rates for the next period. We also included three quarterly dummies in the model to account for any possible seasonality effects.

10. 11. 12. 13. 14. Co-authored with Alice Y. Ouyang and Thomas D. Willett The importance of intervention in order to accumulate reserves comes out clearly from the survey of selected central banks by Mihaljek (2005). See, for example, Willett and Kim (2006). Of course, if an economy has been maintaining a fairly stable and rigid exchange rate peg like China and Hong Kong without there being opportunistic devaluations, it may be inappropriate to characterize that as being mercantilist. With regard to the supposed floaters in emerging Asia, there is evidence that they continue to actively manage their currencies vis-à-vis the US dollar even post-1998 (see Cavoli and Rajan 2009, chapter 1; Willett et al.

For instance in the case of Thailand the central bank has noted: Since 2 July 1997, Thailand has adopted a managed-float exchange rate regime, replacing the basket-peg regime which had been in operation since 1984. The value of the baht has since then been largely determined by market forces. The Bank of Thailand manages the exchange rate by intervening in the foreign exchange market from time to time in order to prevent excessive volatilities in the markets, while fundamental trends are accommodated.

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