Econometrics

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By Richard E. Baldwin, Joseph F. Francois

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I. and V. D. Norman (1992), `Global Production Effects of European Integration'. In L. ), Trade Flows and Trade Policy after `1992'. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Chapter 3. (1996), `Scenarios as Tools to Assess the Effects of Trade Policy', SNF Working Paper No. 11/1996, Bergen. , T. Rutherford, and D. Tarr (1994), `Product Standards, Imperfect Competition and the Completion of the Market in the European Community', World Bank mimeo No. 6. Helpman, E. and P. Krugman (1985), Market Structure and Foreign Trade.

Thus, policy reforms that appear identical in a static framework can have a qualitatively different impact on developing countries than on developed ones. This is because they may accelerate growth along the transition path, thereby allowing higher incomes to be realized at an earlier date. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 brie¯y 16 Joseph F. Francois, HaÊkan NordstroÈm, and Clinton R. Shiells reviews the empirical literature on trade and growth, arguing that the positive linkages typically found do not, so far, ®rmly establish the existence of particular endogenous growth mechanisms.

Investigating the time-series properties of individual OECD countries, he found no persistent upward shifts in GDP growth that would be associated with the documented upward drift in the investment/GDP ratio. ' To summarize, cross-country regressions provide strong evidence of a positive linkage between trade and growth. The linkages seem mainly to be indirect through investment, though trade may also directly affect growth by facilitating transmission of knowledge between countries. However, there is little evidence, so far, that trade reforms lead to permanent increases in growth rates.

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