Econometrics

Download An Economic Analysis of Conflicts: With an Application to by Nicos Christodoulakis PDF

By Nicos Christodoulakis

This e-book presents a quantitative framework for the research of clash dynamics and for estimating the commercial charges linked to civil wars. the writer develops changed Lotka-Volterra equations to version clash dynamics, to yield practical representations of conflict tactics, and to permit us to evaluate lengthy clash traps. the commercial charges of civil wars are evaluated with the aid of replacement tools: first of all, the writer employs a creation functionality to figure out how the destruction of human and actual capital shares undermines monetary progress within the medium time period. Secondly, he develops a man-made regulate procedure, the place the fee is got because the divergence of exact monetary task from a hypothetical direction within the absence of civil warfare. the variation among the 2 ways supplies a sign of the hostile externalities impinging upon the financial system within the type of institutional destruction. through the use of exact time-series concerning conflict casualties, neighborhood socio-economic signs, and capital inventory destruction through the Greek Civil struggle (1946-1949), a full-scale software of the above framework is gifted and discussed.

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Extra resources for An Economic Analysis of Conflicts: With an Application to the Greek Civil War 1946-1949

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62) considers that the following processes fall within the definition of a civil war: 1. An armed conflict within recognized national borders and with the key protagonists being local. 2. The exercise of systematic and organized violence between organized groups, whether supporting or opposing the government. 3. Significant human toll on more than one sides that take part in the conflict. 4. The main parties involved in the conflict coalesce around political, social, or ideological agendas and processes.

This does not cover the option for a party to appease the aggressor in the hope that it will be allowed to share some part of the reward or keep a fraction of the assets it already possesses. e. p1(0, x2) >0 and similarly for p2. In this case, winning probabilities are described by the functions: p1 ¼ emx1 emx2 , p2 ¼ mx mx þe 2 e 1 þ emx2 emx1 ð3:5Þ Another formulation can be adopted for the possibility of a stalemate. In describing a conflict, Konrad and Skarpedas (1998) consider a general function form of the kind: p1 ¼ f 1 ðx 1 Þ f 2 ðx 2 Þ , p2 ¼ f 1 ðx1 Þ þ f 2 ðx2 Þ þ f 0 f 1 ðx 1 Þ þ f 2 ðx 2 Þ þ f 0 ð3:6Þ where fj(xj) is the “effectiveness function” as before, and f0 is a constant.

Both series of unemployment and production concentration are subsequently used as instrumental variables. 2 and show that working-class composition is now significant at the 10 % level. Nevertheless, the explanatory power with regards to the political discontent prevailing in 1946 is extremely low and the approach is not pursued any further. E. 084) Notes: One, two or three stars indicate p-values at 10 %, 5 % or 1 % respectively.

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